Population and demographic structure

Lääne-Harju municipality, located in northwestern Estonia, presents a distinctive demographic profile shaped by its proximity to Tallinn, its coastal location, and its mix of urban and rural areas.

As of 2024, the population of Lääne-Harju municipality is 13,772 inhabitants. The municipality’s population dynamics from 2018 to 2024 show relative stability, which distinguishes it from many other rural municipalities in Estonia experiencing more significant population declines.

The municipality’s settlement pattern is diverse, with one town (Paldiski) and 52 villages. The population density is approximately 21.3 inhabitants per km², which is relatively high for a rural municipality due to its proximity to Tallinn.

The age structure shows a balanced distribution:

• 953 children aged 0-6
• 1,838 young people aged 7-18
• 8,181 working-age residents (19-64)
• 2,480 residents aged 65-84
• 320 residents aged 85 and above

This demographic profile demonstrates:

• Strong presence of young families
• Substantial youth population
• Solid working-age population base
• Moderate elderly population
• Suburban demographic patterns

The municipality’s proximity to Tallinn provides economic opportunities that help retain younger residents and attract new inhabitants. The coastal location and natural environment also play a significant role in attracting both permanent residents and seasonal inhabitants.

Demographic analysis of the Lääne-Harju municipality:

Overall Growth Pattern:

• Started at 12,881 residents in 2018
• Ended at 13,772 residents in 2024
• Net gain of 891 people (6.9% increase)

Notable Periods:

• Initial stability: 2018-2019 (minimal change)
• Slight decline: 2019-2020 (lost 224 residents)
• Recovery and growth: 2020-2024 (gained 1,131 residents)
• Strongest growth: 2022-2023 (585 residents added)

Contributing Factors:

• Strategic location near Tallinn
• Suburban development
• Improved infrastructure
• Attractive for families seeking suburban lifestyle
• Impact of administrative reform and municipal merger

Future Implications:

• Trend suggests continued steady growth
• Need for infrastructure development
• Potential for further suburban expansion
• Challenges in service provision for growing population

According to the 2024 demographic data for Lääne-Harju municipality Total Dependency Ratio (TDR) is following:

• Children (0-18): 2,791
• Elderly (65+): 2,800
• Working age (19-64): 8,181

TDR = 68.3%

This means that for every 100 working-age people (aged 19-64) in Lääne-Harju municipality, there are about 68 dependents (children aged 0-18 and elderly people aged 65 and over). This dependency ratio indicates a relatively balanced demographic structure compared to many other Estonian municipalities. The ratio suggests that the working-age population faces a moderate burden in supporting both young and elderly populations.

Economy

Lääne-Harju municipality shows an unemployment rate of 4.41% in 2024, with 607 registered unemployed persons. This rate is relatively high compared to other municipalities in our study group, especially considering its location in Harju County.

The municipality’s economy is significantly shaped by its strategic maritime infrastructure, particularly the ports of Paldiski. The North Port and South Port of Paldiski serve as major cargo and passenger terminals, handling significant international trade and providing substantial employment. These deep-water ports are particularly important for:

• International cargo shipping
• Roll-on/roll-off vessel traffic
• Bulk cargo handling
• Energy sector logistics

The municipality’s economic structure shows a three-sector distribution:

1. Primary sector: 5% of employment
2. Secondary sector (industry and construction): 30% of employment
3. Tertiary sector (services): 65% of employment

A notable feature of Lääne-Harju’s economy is its significant renewable energy sector, with several large wind parks contributing to both the local economy and Estonia’s green energy transition.

According to 2023 data, Harju County, where Lääne-Harju is located, had:

• Total GDP: €24 billion

Whilst specific municipal GDP figures are not available in Estonia, Lääne-Harju’s economic strengths lie in its combination of:

• Strategic port infrastructure
• Renewable energy production
• Access to the capital region’s labour market
• Transport connectivity

The municipality maintains an activity rate of 71.2% and an employment rate of 68%. Despite these advantages and diverse economic base, the relatively high unemployment rate compared to neighbouring areas suggests some economic challenges remain to be addressed.

Energy resources

Lääne-Harju Municipality demonstrates a balanced and forward-looking energy system, with a focus on sustainability and efficient resource utilisation. Total energy use per capita stands at 10.6 MWh, reflecting moderate consumption levels in line with municipalities of similar size and infrastructure.

Electricity consumption and production: The municipality's annual electricity consumption is 93,568 MWh, supporting residential, commercial, and industrial activities. Renewable electricity production to the grid amounts to 1,810 MWh annually, showcasing a growing commitment to integrating renewable energy into the local grid. Expanding renewable electricity capacity presents a clear opportunity for further sustainability advancements.

Heat energy production in Lääne-Harju totals 40,149 MWh annually, with 26,829 MWh (67%) derived from renewable sources, primarily biomass and other sustainable resources. This substantial reliance on renewables for heating underscores the municipality's leadership in adopting environmentally friendly energy practices.

Strategic Advantages: Lääne-Harju benefits from its strategic location near key energy infrastructure and transport networks, making it well-positioned for further renewable energy investments. Opportunities include:

• Expanding Renewable Electricity Generation: Leveraging wind and solar energy potential to increase local renewable electricity output.
• Modernising Energy Systems: Upgrading heat production facilities and integrating smart energy solutions to enhance efficiency.
• Encouraging Community Energy Projects: Empowering local businesses and residents to contribute to renewable energy initiatives through small-scale projects and public-private partnerships.

Conclusions: Lääne-Harju Municipality's energy profile highlights its strong foundation in renewable heat production and efficient energy consumption. By building on its existing infrastructure and investing in renewable energy expansion, the municipality can further strengthen its energy sustainability and contribute to broader environmental objectives. These efforts will enhance energy resilience and support long-term economic and environmental benefits for the region.